Synopsis: Without marketshare, BlackBerry Messenger is not a "killer app." RIM must license BlackBerry OS 10 to survive.
In the slow-motion trainwreck saga that is RIM, the one redeeming factor that tech analysts like to mention is BlackBerry Messenger (BBM). The free* inter-blackberry texting service still remains popular in Canada and the UK, where BlackBerry market share is above 30%.
It's a classic example of network effects. People in these countries buy BlackBerries so they can text their friends, who also have BlackBerries. But with user interest and marketshare dropping like a rock, BBM is becoming irrelevant for the average consumer.
Recently, Thorsten Heins, CEO of RIM, announced that his company is considering letting other manufacturers use BlackBerry 10 OS on their phones. If Heins can convince the likes of HTC and Samsung to use his OS, he will make BlackBerries cheaper to the end user, enhance global reach, and possibly regain lost marketshare.
These competitive manufacturers may consider BlackBerry OS as a way to stand out. Whether consumers will buy the device is still uncertain, but RIM is in a much better position with brand awareness than Microsoft is.
In the age of "Bring Your Own Device," RIM cannot survive as a "business-oriented" smartphone maker. Either you make smartphones used by everyone or you don't make them at all. It looks like BlackBerry is heading towards the latter. Who can blame them? No one wants to compete against Samsung.
*Most carriers require a data contract to use BBM
Mobile Marketshare in Canada, 2012: http://mobilesyrup.com/2012/04/20/iphone-market-share-in-canada-increased-to-28-says-ipsos/
Mobile Marketshare per Country, 2012: http://connect.icrossing.co.uk/2012-mobile-market-share-infographic_7962
Thorsten Heins announces possible licensing of BB OS10: http://www.mobot.net/rim-ceo-heins-trouble-fact-license-blackberry-10-45642
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