There are still many people out there that believe Bitcoin is a fad that can "drop to zero" on the whim of a few websites or the US Government. Anyone with a solid understanding of the siginificance of the technology behind Bitcoin will realize this is almost impossible.
Even if Bitcoin were to be overshadowed by a newer cryptocurrency, the fundamental technology behind it, the blockchain, will remain significant.
The Bitcoin blockchain is a digital record that contains every Bitcoin transaction in history. It solves the longstanding problem of digital ownership: no one can "spend bitcoins twice" without fooling more than half of the entire Bitcoin network: a task becoming increasingly hard with the exponential increase in Bitcoin mining power.
While digital money is the most obvious item to transmit through this technology, it can be used to prove ownership and provide of any kind of digital file: copyrighted music, article of incorporation, etc. Like the Internet in the 90s, we have not even imagined the possibilities of Bitcoin and blockchain technology.
One of the best indicators of successful technology is whether people are using it to break the law.One of the best early predictors of successful technology is whether people are using it to break the law. This shows that the technology has overcome an economic hurdle that has prevented people from breaking such laws in the past.
A great example is Peer-to-Peer file sharing, the technology behind Bittorrent that allows people share often very large files with many people without buying expensive bandwidth and dedicated servers.
Much P2P content is pirated, but unlike traditional content piracy, pirate content is distributed on P2P without financial incentives. P2P pirates are motivated to increase their online reputations, not profits, but this is only possible due the the extreme efficiency of P2P sharing technology.
Despite enormous pressure from the entertainment industry, P2P has thrived and is now used by organizations to legitimately distribute software. The closet analogue to P2P file sharing is 3D printing.
Like P2P, 3D printing drastically decreases an economic cost, this time the cost of physical manufacturing. Like P2P, the cost decrease is so dramatic that people will begin to distribute 3D printable designs without financial incentive.
We already see the potential for law breaking: anyone can now print their own 30 round magazines and knockoff toys. The potential for legitimate use is also great: 3D printing empowers artists and small-time designers with a whole new medium.
Looking at P2P's past, we know that any government or industry effort to ban or restrict 3D printing will be futile since the triumph of efficient technologies is inevitable. Its best to embrace such technologies and encourage their legitimate use.
Lastly, aerial transport drones will transform the entire retail market, including online commerce and physical stores. Even with 3D printing, we will still need to buy goods that are not printable: fresh food and electronics for example.
Instead of scheduling a trip to the grocery store or waiting days for a package to arrive, imagine an Amazon or Walmart drone delivering items to by parachute to your front door within hours of ordering.
The success of transport drones will not rely on convenience alone: it also represents a huge reduction in shipping costs. It costs much less for a small robot to deliver a package through the air than paying for a driver and a vehicle to deliver packages on an assigned route.
While aerial transport drones have great potential, I put this technology last because it has the greatest risk of failure due to regulation. While it will be incredibily hard for a government entity to enforce a "ban" on Bitcoin and to a lesser extent 3D printing, it would be relatively easy to enforce a ban on transport drones: they can simply be shot out of the air.
Unless the FAA clears the use of airspace for private transport drones, we may never see the success of this technology. I am hopeful, however, because well-heeled companies like Amazon are likely exerting lobbyists right now to make this a technology a reality in the US.
